EU Prepares Proportionate Countermeasures if No Deal Is Reached with the US

As tensions rise between the European Union and the United States, the EU has taken a firm stance: if no trade deal is reached by August 1, 2025, it will implement proportionate countermeasures totaling €93 billion. This is in response to a U.S. proposal to impose 30% tariffs on European imports.

With just days left, both sides are locked in final negotiations — and the global market is watching closely.

What Is the EU Planning?

According to Reuters, the European Commission has approved a package of retaliatory tariffs, ready to go into effect on August 7, 2025 if the U.S. follows through with its threat.

The proposed EU tariffs target a broad range of American goods, including:

• Aerospace parts and aircraft
• Cars and auto parts
• Aluminum, steel, soy products
• Whiskey, poultry, orange juice
• Luxury items like yachts and cosmetics

The U.S. Threat

President Trump has threatened to impose 30% tariffs on EU imports beginning August 1, unless the EU accepts a new bilateral trade agreement favorable to U.S. interests. These tariffs would hit key European exports, especially from Germany, France, and the Netherlands.

Where Do Negotiations Stand?

As of July 24, 2025, negotiations are active and progressing, though fragile. The current framework under discussion includes:

• A mutual 15% baseline tariff on industrial goods
• Sectoral exceptions (e.g., for pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and aviation)
• Rules for dispute resolution and digital trade cooperation
• Sources such as Euronews and Politico confirm that the EU has consolidated separate “retaliation lists” into a unified draft — a sign it is serious about escalation, but still committed to diplomacy.

What Happens If No Deal Is Reached?

August 1, 2025 – U.S. 30% tariffs potentially take effect.

August 7, 2025 – EU activates €93 billion in counter-tariffs if no agreement is finalized.

Additionally, the EU is considering the use of its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which could impact U.S. digital and financial services access in the European single market — a “last resort” option if talks completely collapse.

Investors, exporters, and global observers should brace for a potential shift in transatlantic trade dynamics — or a breakthrough deal that could redefine economic ties.

Source: https://www.reuters.com/en/eu-backs-potential-counter-tariffs-93-billion-euros-us-goods-2025-07-24

Source: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-eyes-15-pct-us-tariff-and-retaliation-if-deal-talks-fall-apart/

Source: https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/07/24/eu-adopts-retaliatory-hit-list-in-response-to-us-tariffs